Cтратегические документы - Рекомендации

Стратегический документ № 13 — Центральная Азия в 2030 году: SEnECA прогнозыдля региона и роль Европейского Союза

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On the eve of the adoption of the new EU’s Central Asia Strategy, SEnECA is providing its version of the future of Central Asia for the year 2030 in its latest policy paper. The paper covers the following three areas: 1. political and economic developments in Central Asian countries, 2. intra-regional cooperation in Central Asia and 3. the EU’s engagement with Central Asia.

The paper concludes that in the year 2030, Central Asian countries will be more advanced economically and will be more open to the outside world in economic terms. Freedoms and liberties will progress at a slower pace and their levels will vary strongly from country to country in the region. Although bilateral and multilateral relations inside the region will have improved by 2030, they will not amount to regional integration.

In 2030, the EU will still play an important role in Central Asia, but its comparative influence will be smaller than today. Other powers, Russia and China in particular, will retain and expand their presence. Thus, in a decade, Central Asia will be a different region from today and changes since the 2007 EU’ Strategy to the upcoming will be starker. Therefore, also EU’s approach has to adapt.

The forecasts of SEnECA are based on semi-structured interviews conducted with experts from the SEnECA network, on a focus group discussion from the SEnECA Scenario Worksop in Almaty (January 2019) and on the analysis of academic and other literature.